The Data
Through November, 2006 Minivan sales were 6.0% of the U.S. light vehicle industry. That's down from 6.5% of industry in 2003, 2004 and 2005, and as much as 7.9% back in 1999 and 2000.
Is that down? Yes, no question about it. But is it out? No, I don't think so. Despite what some commentators say, it still represents 1.0 million units per year. That's a lot more than the sporty coupe (Mustang, Tiburon etc) market that GM and Chrysler are planning on entering with the new Camaro and Challenger.
Ford and General Motors Abandon Minivan Market
As a reminder about what is happening in the Minivan market, Ford has already dropped out of the market killing first its slow selling Mercury Monterey Minivan and now the Ford Freestar. As of November 2006, Ford completely stopped producing Minivans and now are selling off inventory. General Motors has announced they are killing their U-Vans and abandoning the Minivan market altogether. This will take a year or two.
The Minivan market may... no, make that WILL... decline with the withdrawal of GM and Ford from direct participation in the segment, but that means all the more for Toyota, Honda, Chrysler/Dodge, and Hyundai/Kia. Once again, good luck trumps planning skill. Or does it?
The Lesson
It seems clear that those companies offering the best Minivans (Honda, Toyota, Chrysler) are doing just fine. Sales are good...and so are profits. But those companies offering mediocre Minivans (essentially GM and Ford) are way down in both sales and profits.
Honda Odyssey
Toyota Sienna
Dodge Grand Caravan
The US is the wealthiest country the world has ever seen. And those folks who buy new vehicles can afford a really good product. Yes, price (like appearance) is always important. But it isn't the all-important driving factor. Pride and prestige are also factors for new vehicle buyers. Build a product people really want to buy, and you can make a profit. Sell essentially on price, and you will find there is virtually no profit in the game at all.
Ford Edge
The Future
The Minivan market will probably decline some, with the withdrawal of GM and Ford and the increased availability of XSUVs (Crossover Sport Utility Vehicles). But a lot of Minivan buyers I talk to really like their Minivan. It is very practical given their needs, and those that buy them (unlike those who would not consider one) are usually not bothered by the Minivan-Mom image. Two sliding rear doors and 7/8 passenger, accessible, 3-row seating are Minivan hallmarks that no other vehicle type can match.
GMC Acadia
The segment may be down (say 10%, maybe 15%), but it is not out yet. Those manufacturers that stay the course, and make a great Minivan, will make healthy profits in this challenging segment.
Credentials - AutoPacific's Minivan Consultancy
Each year, I have had the "pleasure" of authoring AutoPacific's Minivan Consultancy. This research report summarizes the experiences of thousands of Minivan owners with their new Minivans. Some are very, very happy. Some are not. What the data give me is unequalled input from the people most important to the Minivan market... the owners. Who is listening? Honda, Toyota, Kia, Chrysler. GM and Ford did not (or could not) invest in keeping their Minivans competitive enough to fend off the Japanese
We recently spent a morning with Buick LaCrosse, the star of the Buick showroom for 2010MY. You know by now that Buick is one of the four core brands that GM retained post-bankruptcy. Wildly successful in China, the brand has challenges in the States, evidenced by Chevrolet Camaro outselling the entire brand in June 2009-- an atypically high month for Camaro that also speaks to the sad shape of Buick sales today. 
